What happens if we launch anyway and deal with licensing later?

The downside is not a fine you can budget for. Unlicensed money transmission exposes the business and its principals to federal felony liability under 18 U.S.C. § 1960 (up to five years per count) with asset forfeiture, civil penalties for failing to register with FinCEN, and state criminal statutes — several states treat unlicensed transmission as a felony in its own right. Commercially, banks and payment partners offboard unlicensed transmitters on sight, and every future state license application must disclose the unlicensed history. (18 U.S.C. § 1960; 31 U.S.C. § 5330; 31 C.F.R. § 1022.380)